If Freeney weren't injured, I'd pick the Colts. But without Freeney harassing Drew Brees on every play, I think NO will be able to score by establishing a physical blocking, running and short passing game. They'll take a few long shots to spread the defense out and make them soft for short plays. It will gradually wear down Indy's fast, but less physical, defense. Brees is also plenty good enough to capitalize on gaps in coverage, and if he plays anywhere near his peak level then he'll be the one stealing the show.
Manning will figure out the Saints defense some time in the second half, though before then they'll be giving him fits. In the fourth Manning will start scoring madly as usual, but I don't see the Colts establishing much of a running game, so it'll be unbalanced (plus shorter time of possession, which is great for the Saints). Also lots of dangerous guys like Sharper in the backfield for Manning to lose sleep over. So to win, the Saints need to be able to score plus take time off the clock so as not to have Manning on the field very often. With Thomas and Bush to run/block and a huge array of good receivers, the Saints have all the tools they need to get ahead enough to hold onto the lead.
Saints 27, Colts 24 (Vinatieri misses the last desperate field goal attempt.)
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