Baseball Thread - Make up a new stat and win a ball

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Re: Baseball Thread - Make up a new stat and win a ball

Postby Frank Delicious » Mon Mar 01, 2010 8:59 pm

Mark Ellis wrote:Win a baseball? What am I supposed to do with a baseball?

Baseball only exists because it has slightly more action than soccer. Boy those pitchers battles are fascinating! Hours and hours of no scoring. If it were years and years of no scoring then it could represent my high school experience.

So in highlights of baseball games (the closest I can get to watching) when the home run ball goes into the stands I see fans fighting over the ball. You know none of them play the game. Why do they want the ball? What are they going to do with it?


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Re: Baseball Thread - Make up a new stat and win a ball

Postby zj1002 » Mon Mar 01, 2010 9:02 pm

longoria needs to stay healthy before i ever trust him. he puts up huge numbers in bunches then cools off or gets injured. i know he has only played 2 seasons but I don't ever see his numbers going past last years
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Re: Baseball Thread - Make up a new stat and win a ball

Postby Frank Delicious » Mon Mar 01, 2010 9:10 pm

zj1002 wrote:longoria needs to stay healthy before i ever trust him. he puts up huge numbers in bunches then cools off or gets injured. i know he has only played 2 seasons but I don't ever see his numbers going past last years


Why do you say that? The guy was 23 last year and is still a few years away from hitting his prime. He looks like he could be a beast when he hits 27 or so.
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Re: Baseball Thread - Make up a new stat and win a ball

Postby Mr. Plow » Mon Mar 01, 2010 9:18 pm

Frank Delicious wrote:
zj1002 wrote:longoria needs to stay healthy before i ever trust him. he puts up huge numbers in bunches then cools off or gets injured. i know he has only played 2 seasons but I don't ever see his numbers going past last years


Why do you say that? The guy was 23 last year and is still a few years away from hitting his prime. He looks like he could be a beast when he hits 27 or so.

I'm going to have to agree with ZJ here. Miguel Cabrera Part II

Cabrera is a stud and all, but has never reached the Pujols like status everyone expected of him. He is still young though, it just seems like he's been in the league FOREVER.
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Re: Baseball Thread - Make up a new stat and win a ball

Postby Mr. Plow » Mon Mar 01, 2010 9:19 pm

Mark Ellis, are you not the Mark Ellis who played 2nd base for the Athletics? Maybe if you played for a better team you would have a more positive outlook on the game of baseball :mrgreen:
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Re: Baseball Thread - Make up a new stat and win a ball

Postby zj1002 » Mon Mar 01, 2010 9:22 pm

I know Longoria has only played 2 years. I loved him on my team at the start of last year when he was crushing it, but he lost steam and got injured again. He is a great hitter, just got to hope he stays healthy. until i see him put together a full year of no major injuries I wont start to consider him as a player to build a fantasy team around like I did last year. I guess you could blame my thoughts on him being one of the reasons my best team tanked it at the end of last year :D
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Re: Baseball Thread - Make up a new stat and win a ball

Postby JimW » Mon Mar 01, 2010 9:32 pm

Frank Delicious wrote:also on a Projections note, I looked up Longoria's stats on Fangraphs and see that James is the only one predicting him to get over 100 RBIs, over 30 homers and has really upped his SLG and ISO (although his projection is close to Evan's 08 season). Do you think James is overvaluing Longoria's power or Chone and others are undervaluing it? I kinda see James view here and think Longoria is going to improve or at least maintain last year's power levels.


A good projection system will more often than not seem to undervalue a fair amount of players, particularly young ones without a lot of major league time, because they're really projecting a range of outcomes of which the one line they give you is the mean. The problem with James' projections in the past, I don't know if he has changed the system at all recently, is that they tend to overall be pretty optimistic. They tend to reflect a positive scenario for the upcoming season for most players when the reality is that some players will break out or have flukish good years while others will regress or decline. A projection system's goal isn't really to get an individual player right, it's to get all of MLB fairly accurately in aggregate. In Longoria's case CHONE, Marcel (a projection system which basically just weights the last three years of a player's performance to make the projection and tends to be at least close to the much more complex systems in accuracy), and ZiPS all have him roughly repeating last year in BA/OBP/SLG so James is simply betting on his power taking a jump while the other systems are more conservative about it. My favorite example of the way projection systems should be looked at, it really illustrates how they tend to work: http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?st ... 5035119999

It's interesting that neither PECOTA or Marcel predicts anyone will hit 40 home runs this season.


It just seems that PECOTA is too conservative across the board - almost too much regression.


Marcel's also got Teixiera at 29 HRs. And, Marcel's regression towards the mean is exactly perfect.

Look at all the guys forecasted for 28 to 30 HRs: Beltre, Sheffield, Delgado, Teixeira, Andruw, Soriano, Tejada, HElton, Berkman, Konerko, Palmeiro, Burnitz, Beltran.

Half of those guys will hit more than 29 HR, and half will hit less. But, you, me, and everyone else has no idea who will hit 30 or 35 HR. Bad luck, good luck, injuries, whatever... everything plays a role in this.

Marcel's best guess is that those 13 hitters will average 29 HRs.

If you wanted Marcel to forecast number of HR without attaching names to it, that'd be alot easier, and the range would be wider.

Think of these forecasts as over/unders.


Look at my comments, 3 posts (and 1 year) earlier. Ok, so I decided to find out what those 13 guys I listed did. Here they are:

51 Andruw
43 Teixeira
40 Konerko
36 Soriano
34 Sheffield
33 Delgado
26 Tejada
24 Berkman
24 Burnitz
20 HElton
19 Beltre
18 Palmeiro
16 Beltran

6 guys with more than 30, and 7 less than 28. Average? 29.5.

For this on the fence on forecasting systems, I hope this little exercise makes it clearer.


People were complaining that PECOTA and Marcel were too conservative because they didn't project enough home runs for the big power guys. In the end the systems were "wrong" about most of the guys, they hit a lot more or a lot fewer home runs than projected, but overall it was actually an accurate estimate. Longoria may well have that power jump James predicts but chances are good that someone else that James predicts for a power jump that the other systems were conservative on too will fall off some this season.
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Re: Baseball Thread - Make up a new stat and win a ball

Postby Frank Delicious » Mon Mar 01, 2010 9:45 pm

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Baseball Thread - Make up a new stat and win a ball

Postby MizzouTiger26 » Mon Mar 01, 2010 11:09 pm

Frank Delicious wrote:Image
Image


I couldn't stop laughing on these two! I'm a Giants fan and I've never seen that clip of Panda haha.

Here's Sandoval getting trucked. And he still held onto the ball.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90CXJ3xabfY
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Re: Baseball Thread - Make up a new stat and win a ball

Postby stoneman » Sun Mar 07, 2010 1:23 am

The only thing interesting I've ever seen related to baseball was that clip of the ball girl going up the wall for a foul ball. :lol:
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Re: Baseball Thread - Make up a new stat and win a ball

Postby Frank Delicious » Sun Mar 07, 2010 9:26 am

stoneman wrote:The only thing interesting I've ever seen related to baseball was that clip of the ball girl going up the wall for a foul ball. :lol:


That was staged.
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Re: Baseball Thread - Make up a new stat and win a ball

Postby homebrew » Sun Mar 07, 2010 10:02 am

MizzouTiger26 wrote:
Frank Delicious wrote:Image


I couldn't stop laughing on these two! I'm a Giants fan and I've never seen that clip of Panda haha.


Oh man, that made my morning!
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Re: Baseball Thread - Make up a new stat and win a ball

Postby stoneman » Sun Mar 07, 2010 1:54 pm

Frank Delicious wrote:
stoneman wrote:The only thing interesting I've ever seen related to baseball was that clip of the ball girl going up the wall for a foul ball. :lol:


That was staged.



Says who?
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Re: Baseball Thread - Make up a new stat and win a ball

Postby MizzouTiger26 » Mon Mar 08, 2010 4:36 pm

I'm pretty sure it was used as a commercial.. Look on the Fresno Grizzlies website. I believe that there is an article about it, although you'd have to do some digging to find it. It was a while ago.

Here:
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080625&content_id=423063&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp
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Re: Baseball Thread - Make up a new stat and win a ball

Postby Frank Delicious » Mon Mar 08, 2010 5:26 pm

stoneman wrote:
Frank Delicious wrote:
stoneman wrote:The only thing interesting I've ever seen related to baseball was that clip of the ball girl going up the wall for a foul ball. :lol:


That was staged.



Says who?


What is more likely? The ball girl really doing that out of the blue or it being staged for a commercial?
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